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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
My dream since I became a teenager was to make a living by gambling.
At the time, all I knew about gambling was betting on sports, using a game my federal government runs called "Proline", a parlay game where you choose the winners of 3 to 6 games. I quickly realized that parlay's are a sucker bet. Once I discovered online poker, I wanted to do that. But a week ago, I started thinking about betting on sports again, only betting on individual games instead of parlays. There is this site I have used before to bet on sports, but what I did was deposit $50 and bet on 2 or 3 games and went broke everytime. I realized that in order to make money sports betting, you need to wager on 5 to 6 games...everynight of every week of every month.
But in order to do that, you need $$$$, which I don't have a lot of right now, especially to risk by gambling without knowing yet if it's even possible or not.
So 3 days ago, I got high and came up with a plan...an experiment, if you will.

Using the odds on World Sports Exchange(wsex.com) I opened up WordPad and gave myself an "account" of "$1000". It's not real money, but it doesn't matter right now. It's as good as real money for the purpose of this experiment. I wouldn't be doing anything different with my bets if the $1000 was real.
My goal is to take that fake $1000 and in 5 months, from August through December 2009, turn it into $6000, for $5000 in profit. If I can do this, I will take a real $1000(that I will have saved up during these next 5 months) and deposit it on the betting site and start making these bets for real.

I decided to make this a thread as a way to motivate myself to keep going when I hit the eventual losing streak. Here are my stats after 3 days:

Updated 1:18am July 31st 2009

Bets made:16
Bets won:10
Bets lost:6
Average bet amount: $13.22
Starting bankroll:$1000
Current bankroll:$1170
Total profit: $170
Profit per bet:$10.63

I am aiming to make 35 bets per week so the minimum profit per bet I need is $7.15, and anything above that is gravy.
 

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ive lost 200 in the last 3 months but i intend to keep playing. For me its the same as going to the movies. You pay the 10 dollar fee or whatever to get in and you are entertained for a few hours. Except with gambling you can make money!
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
ive lost 200 in the last 3 months but i intend to keep playing. For me its the same as going to the movies. You pay the 10 dollar fee or whatever to get in and you are entertained for a few hours. Except with gambling you can make money!
Yeah, losing $200 over 3 months isnt bad at all, unless you like, lost it all on one game or something lol. 3 months have 12 weekends, and that's like spending $20 every weekend...it's good entertainment lol.
I'm talking about averaging at least $250 profit per week though, but possibly more, for an entire year.
To me, gambling is like investing. You need money to to make money. If I feel a baseball team has a 75% chance to beat a weaker team, I'm willing to bet $20 on it happening.
I just really wanna do this lol. To me, the perfect life would be golfing..all day...and watching sports, betting on them and smoking weed, all night. The biggest question is how do you handle that first big losing streak? Cause they happen to everyone who tries to make a living doing it.
 

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I can't really offer any advice since im not the best of gamblers but maby it would be wiser to have a stable 9-5 job. You can still gamble but just with a small amount of money that way if you lose you can still afford to eat lol. I have made the mistake in the past where i will put 50-100 on 3 teams that have 1.15 odds thinking it is an automatic win only for one team to **** the bed. Living your life as a pro gambler has to be one of the hardest jobs in the world...im sure you can handle the gains but when you lose you REALLY lose. If you want to go for it then go for it but be prepared to have a plan B. Or just sell drugs.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Well, I don't work but I have a monthly income to cover rent bills food, all that fun stuff. In order for me to come up with the $1000 of real money lol, I'm gunna use Christmas money, birthday money, and there's a good chance I'll have to sell my TV. But that's why this 5 month experiment is important. If I don't turn the fake $1000 into a fake $6000, I'm not going to deposit any real money to begin with.
3 days into a 150 day experiment...
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Yes, this is true. One demonstration a professor in a statistics class did was to break up a class into two groups. One group would flip a coin repeatedly and write the results on a board, the other group would make up a random string of heads and tails. The professor would leave the room and when he came back, he could always tell which was the actual random series and which was the made up one.

The oddity is that the truly random series doesn't look random while the made up one does. That's because you get very odd streaks in the true random series. This is extremely important to understand if you ever want to make a living doing something like this. You have to allocate the size of your bets with the expectation of these streaks hitting sooner or later.

I don't know exactly how sports betting works, but I understand the concept well enough (from other 'gambling') to know that the situation above isn't that simple. It isn't a matter of picking teams you believe have a good chance of winning and betting on those. That's because better teams have the win probability priced into them. If the group of betters believe that a team has a 75% chance of winning, you'll only win a third of your bet by taking that side. A $21 bet will only win you $7 and this is ignoring commissions and slippage. Assuming the 75% is correct, betting all the time on 75% teams won't win you money over the long term.

The key to winning these things over the long term is to pick teams that the other bettors are placing the wrong probability on. So if a game is pricing the probability of a team winning at 75% and you think the team actually has a 80% then that would be the time to bet. If you are right about that probability, over the long term you will win money (ignoring commissions, fees, spreads, etc.). The point of course, is that in theory, in a game where the probabilities are correct, you cannot make money over the long term (without random luck or cheating).
I just pulled the 75% number outta my *** lol but you are correct about all that.
The sportsbook adjusts the odds, depending on who is playing, the starting pitchers, etc.
It's all about a yearlong average...
A decent sports bettor will win 55% of the bets he makes. He/she will lose 45% of the bets he makes...obviously.
A good sports bettor will make between 40% and 80% of the amount he bets.
A good bettor will make roughly 100 bets a month, 1200 bets a year.
A good bettor, expecting to make a comfortable living, will bet $50 each game.
So, using the 55% win, 45% loss numbers:

Over 1200 bets, a good bettor will lose 540 of them. Each of those losses will be $50 each for a total of $27,000 in lost bets.
Over 1200 bets, a good bettor will win 660 of them. Each of those wins will be $50, plus 80% of that($40, for a total of $90 for each win), and $59400 in winning bets.
$59400
-$27000
$32,400 a year.

Even at a 40% return instead of 80%, a bettor could make $20,000 a year that way...and that's music to my ears.

I know I'm making it sound easy but believe me, I know gambling is the hardest way to make an easy living. But I believe with a proper long term plan and proper money management, then betting on sports can be the same as trading stocks.
This whole thing is a 3 part plan. The first part is this experiment to see if I can make it through 5 months of betting, with a $5000 profit. If I can't, none of this matters anyway. If I can, I will deposit $1000 on January 1st 2010 and aim to make $12,000 of real money by December 31st 2010. If THAT happens, I'll keep $6000 in a seperate bank account to have 6 months or so of living expenses, and I'd use the other $6000 as my bankroll to start making bigger bets, eventually getting to $50 and maybe in 5 years, $100 per game.

I definitely appreciate the feedback, I like it cause I like getting questions that I either have an answer to or need to find an answer to, in which case I might find out how wrong I am and save myself a lot of money lol.
 

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The sportsbook adjusts the odds, depending on who is playing, the starting pitchers, etc.
It's all about a yearlong average...
A decent sports bettor will win 55% of the bets he makes. He/she will lose 45% of the bets he makes...obviously.
A good sports bettor will make between 40% and 80% of the amount he bets.
A good bettor will make roughly 100 bets a month, 1200 bets a year.
A good bettor, expecting to make a comfortable living, will bet $50 each game.
So, using the 55% win, 45% loss numbers:

Over 1200 bets, a good bettor will lose 540 of them. Each of those losses will be $50 each for a total of $27,000 in lost bets.
Over 1200 bets, a good bettor will win 660 of them. Each of those wins will be $50, plus 80% of that($40, for a total of $90 for each win), and $59400 in winning bets.
$59400
-$27000
$32,400 a year.
Whoa... wait...

You're saying that on a 50% probability bet, that if you lose.... you lose $50
... but if you win, you're booking $90 as a gain???

You're double counting your returned bet. The $50 you get back is already yours so you can't count that as a win. Your gain is only $40 per win. Otherwise, you're saying that on a 50% probability bet, you're getting 180% returns on wins... impossible.

540 x $50 losses = $27000 loss
660 x $40 gains = $26400 gain
NET GAIN = -$600!

That's if you're right 55% of the time!!!

Do you see this? Let me know if you disagree.

Are you also counting commissions and such, if any? Are there also spreads or points given to the underdog team?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Whoa... wait...

You're saying that on a 50% probability bet, that if you lose.... you lose $50
... but if you win, you're booking $90 as a gain???

You're double counting your returned bet. The $50 you get back is already yours so you can't count that as a win. Your gain is only $40 per win. Otherwise, you're saying that on a 50% probability bet, you're getting 180% returns on wins... impossible.

540 x $50 losses = $27000 loss
660 x $40 gains = $26400 gain
NET GAIN = -$600!

Do you see this? Let me know if you disagree.

Are you also counting commissions and such, if any? Are there also spreads or points given to the underdog team?
No, no. Here's how an example using one of tonights games:

Boston is listed as -120 vs Baltimore. That means you have to bet $120 to win $100. If you bet $120 and lose, you lose $120. If you bet $120 and win, you get your $120 bet back, plus $100, total of $220. Once you place your $120 bet, that money is gone...it isn't yours anymore. So when you win, you get that back, plus the $100 payout.
With the example I used in my previous post, the $40 was the return on investment. You bet $50 to win $40, and if you do, you get your $50 back, plus $40, for a total of $90.

The 660 bets you win, each time you'll get $50+$40(on average, based on a full year of 1200 total bets. Over the course of a week or a month or two months, it won't be exactly that much, which is why you need half a years living expenses and a sizeable bankroll.)

A single bet should never be more than 2% of your total bankroll, so my max bet, with $1000, is $20. Right now I'm betting an average of $13.50 per game.

540 x $50=$27000 in losses
660 x ($50+$40)=$59400 in wins
Total profit for this example=$32400

As for commissions and fees, there are none of that. The only fee I pay is the currency exchange because I'm depositing Canadian funds and they use American.
 

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No, no. Here's how an example using one of tonights games:

Boston is listed as -120 vs Baltimore. That means you have to bet $120 to win $100. If you bet $120 and lose, you lose $120. If you bet $120 and win, you get your $120 bet back, plus $100, total of $220. Once you place your $120 bet, that money is gone...it isn't yours anymore. So when you win, you get that back, plus the $100 payout.
With the example I used in my previous post, the $40 was the return on investment. You bet $50 to win $40, and if you do, you get your $50 back, plus $40, for a total of $90.

The 660 bets you win, each time you'll get $50+$40(on average, based on 1200 total bets. Over the course of a week or a month or two months, it won't be exactly that much, which is why you need half a years living expenses and a sizeable bankroll.)

A single bet should never be more than 2% of your total bankroll, so my max bet, with $1000, is $20. Right now I'm betting an average of $13.50 per game.

540 x $50=$27000 in losses
660 x ($50+$40)=$59400 in wins
Total profit for this example=$32400

As for commissions and fees, there are none of that. The only fee I pay is the currency exchange because I'm depositing Canadian funds and they use American.
When you pay the $120 to bet, you must count that as a cost. If you win, you aren't getting $220... because it includes your bet. You're getting $100.

You cannot make money in this game by winning 55% of the time on 50% bets. This is sometimes called slippage. In this case, it's how the house makes their money. All the winning bets and all the losing bets don't add up to 100%. You see? They pocket 10%. And you must win over 60% of the time to make anything.

You can do this with a friend. Use monopoly money if you want. Your friend plays as the house, you play as the bettor.

Each start out with $10,000. Pay your friend $100 and flip a coin (a 50% outcome). If he wins, you lose your $100. If you win, you get $180 back. Remember, you have to pay him $100 before each flip and you get $180 back if you win. I guarantee you'll lose all your money over time.
 

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Actually, coin flipping is not a good example since you want something 55%. You can instead use an ordered list with 55% win, and 45% lose. Or you could take a bowl and put in 55 of one coin, say nickels and 45 dimes. The nickel will mean you win, dime you lose. Pull out each one at a time to mimic wins and losses (with a perfect 55% win rate). Replace the coins in the bowl when empty.

You'll still get wiped out.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
When you pay the $120 to bet, you must count that as a cost. If you win, you aren't getting $220... because it includes your bet. You're getting $100.

You cannot make money in this game by winning 55% of the time on 50% bets. This is sometimes called slippage. In this case, it's how the house makes their money. All the winning bets and all the losing bets don't add up to 100%. You see? They pocket 10%. And you must win over 60% of the time to make anything.

You can do this with a friend. Use monopoly money if you want. Your friend plays as the house, you play as the bettor.

Each start out with $10,000. Pay your friend $100 and flip a coin (a 50% outcome). If he wins, you lose your $100. If you win, you get $180 back. Remember, you have to pay him $100 before each flip and you get $180 back if you win. I guarantee you'll lose all your money.
...I'm not winning 55% on 50% of the bets...I'm winning 55% of all the bets. All 1200 of them.

I make 1200 bets, $50 each time.
I lose 45% of them, (540 of 1200).
540x$50=$27000 losses.
I win 55% of them(660 of 1200)
In those 660 wins, I get $50 back, plus the average payout on those 660 wins. That average payout is called your Return On Investment. I set the ROI between 40% and 80% but used 80% for my example. 80% of your $50 bet is $40.

So, after making 1000 $50 bets, I'll lose $50 540 times($27,000) and I'll win $50 660 times, PLUS $40(80% ROI) 660 times...for a total of $59400...or a profit of $32,400.

I'm losing $50, 540 times.
Im getting back $50, 660 times.
And I'm making $40 extra, 660 times.

Get it...?
 

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...I'm not winning 55% on 50% of the bets...I'm winning 55% of all the bets. All 1200 of them.

I make 1200 bets, $50 each time.
I lose 45% of them, (540 of 1200).
540x$50=$27000 losses.
I win 55% of them(660 of 1200)
In those 660 wins, I get $50 back, plus the average payout on those 660 wins. That average payout is called your Return On Investment. I set the ROI between 40% and 80% but used 80% for my example. 80% of your $50 bet is $40.

So, after making 1000 $50 bets, I'll lose $50 540 times($27,000) and I'll win $50 660 times, PLUS $40(80% ROI) 660 times...for a total of $59400...or a profit of $32,400.

I'm losing $50, 540 times.
Im getting back $50, 660 times.
And I'm making $40 extra, 660 times.

Get it...?
Yes, I get it. Your math is completely off. But I won't push the issue any further.

Good luck with your gambling and I do suggest you try the experiment I described below.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Yes, I get it. Your math is completely off. But I won't push the issue any further.

Good luck with your gambling and I do suggest you try the experiment I described below.
Lol but now it's bugging me cause I know Im right.

I'd LOVE to do your experiment.

Bet $100 on the flip of a coin. If I lose, I lose $100. If I win, I'll win $180.

Let's say we set the number of flips at 1000.
The odds hold and I lose 50% and win 50%.
500 times I lost $100=$50,000 in losses.
500 times I won $180=$90,000 in wins.

And that's only when I win 50%. Let me win 55% of the time
450 times I lose $100=$45,000
550 times I win $180=$99,000

Can I have my money please?
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Actually, coin flipping is not a good example since you want something 55%. You can instead use an ordered list with 55% win, and 45% lose. Or you could take a bowl and put in 55 of one coin, say nickels and 45 dimes. The nickel will mean you win, dime you lose. Pull out each one at a time to mimic wins and losses (with a perfect 55% win rate). Replace the coins in the bowl when empty.

You'll still get wiped out.
I missed this one.
In this example, you've got the coins mixed up. It'd have to be a bowl of 100 coins, 55 dimes and 45 nickels.
 

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I'd love to sit there in person with you and play this out with real money. The amazed look on your face as I accumulate all your money would be priceless (pun intended).
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
I'd love to sit there in person with you and play this out with real money. The amazed look on your face as I accumulate all your money would be priceless (pun intended).
Did I do your experiments wrong?

I don't think you understand how sports betting works.

When you make a $120 bet to win $100, and you win that bet, your total win is $220, not $100. $100 is your profit.

Think of it this way:

You have a sports betting account with $120 in it. Boston is listed as -120 so you bet your last $120 to win $100. After you make that bet, your account has $0. If you win the bet, your account will have $220...that's what you won. Your profit is $100.

For your coin flipping question, when you bet $100 and lose, your friend keeps the $100. If you bet $100 and win, your friend gives you the $100, plus an extra $80...see how that works?

I'm sorry I keep going into this lol but it bugs me that you think I'm wrong somehow.
 

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OK, here's one more example. Let's say you lose 60% of the time and win only 40%. This means certain wipeout... correct?

So by your math, let's figure out what happens when you lose a whopping 60% of the time:

1200 @ 60% = 720 losses
1200 @ 40% = 480 wins

720 x 100 (each loss)= $72,000
480 x 180 (each win)= $86,000
Net = $14,000 gain ???

So tell me, how by your math do you figure someone with an appalling 60% losing rate ends up with a $14,000 gain?

Either this game is a no brainer and we should all be playing is since you can't seem to lose money on it, or.... Your math is simply wrong.

(Hint: your math is wrong! Trust me on this)
 

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I'm posting on behalf of a fallen comrade (R.I.P Cypress)

"How do you expect to have a large net gain on a coin toss? Statistically that's impossible over time. Please review your entire concept before you go completely broke."
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
OK, here's one more example. Let's say you lose 60% of the time and win only 40%. This means certain wipeout... correct?
That's only correct with 0% Return on Investment.
If you don't earn a profit on your wins, yes, of course you'll go broke losing 40% of the time. With no ROI, you'll go broke losing as much as 49.99999% of the time.

So by your math, let's figure out what happens when you lose a whopping 60% of the time:

1200 @ 60% = 720 losses
1200 @ 40% = 480 wins

720 x 100 (each loss)= $72,000
480 x 180 (each win)= $86,000
Net = $14,000 gain ???

So tell me, how by your math do you figure someone with an appalling 60% losing rate ends up with a $14,000 gain?
The $14,400 profit comes from the extra $80 you get on your wins.
Lose $100 720 times, and you're down $72,000.
Win $180 480 times, and you get $86,400, for a total profit of $14,400 after 1200 bets.

Either this game is a no brainer and we should all be playing is since you can't seem to lose money on it, or.... Your math is simply wrong.
Well no, because I never said you can't lose in this game. That's why I'm doing this experiment. All I've said is that after 5 months, if I can win 55% of my bets, with an ROI of even 50% for those wins, I'll show a profit.

My math isn't wrong lol. Ask someone...

(Hint: your math is wrong! Trust me on this)
My math isn't wrong lol. Ask someone...
 
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