What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today? - Social Anxiety Forum
 
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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 07:20 AM Thread Starter
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What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


I was watching C-SPAN this morning, and they were talking to Rep. Jim McDermott who was talking about pulling the troops. Pretty much all the Democrats (and a few of the Republicans and the public as well) seem to be saying the same thing. In principle, I agree. In hindsight, we should never have gone in the first place, or if we did, we should have gone and did what we actually wanted to do (topple Saddam) and leave. I guess that is what made Bush I's war plan so brilliant

In any event, what I don't see much discussion about is what will happen in Iraq once we leave w/o stabilizing the country. I wouldn't be surprised if it fell back into dictatorship within the next 10 or so years. I dunno, perhaps that's what a divided place like Iraq needs? But in the more short-term, I think there could be the serious problem of Iran taking over and having way more control over the world oil market than they do now. Another possibility is that it will become a state of total anarchy (whereas now, contrary to what you see on tv, most of the country is stable, just not in that sunni triangle area) and really will become a haven for international terror.

I don't know... I just don't see much concern from the politicians who want to pull about what will happen there if we do leave. I know, states fail all the time, and I don't typically lose sleep over it. However, Iraq failing could potentially have many, many problems. I guess my question is to you all on SAS who want to pull out (most of you), what do you think will happen?

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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 07:52 AM
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Re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


Let me consult my crystal ball....

OK, forget that. I agree with you: dictatorship/anarchy/terrorist nightmare. But aren't there signs of that already?

Quote:
I don't know... I just don't see much concern from the politicians who want to pull about what will happen there if we do leave.
Bearing in mind that the Iraqis don't vote for Western politicians and are dying in droves every day, I don't suppose that the politicians care much about anything other than taking any credit that might be due (e.g. for getting Saddam executed and getting the troops home), finding someone else to blame for the mess (e.g. Iraqi government/opposition politicians), covering their backs and getting out.

The wisdom of going there in the first place is not so relevant now, IMHO. They've helped to start the mess, and have an obligation to the Iraqis to help sort things out. Not creep off home. Isn't that the honourable thing to do?
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 08:21 AM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


They're never going to accept the al-Maliki U.S. puppet government as being legitimate. The first thing that will happen is the government will be toppled. After that, there will be mass destruction and total anarchy. Someone will rise to power and create a police state. There will be mass executions. Eventually things will settle down and it will become a totalitarian government, much like under Hussein.

This will happen whether we pull out now or in five years. The only plan that has as chance for success at this point is Biden's plan for partitioning Iraq into three semi-autonomous regions. If we don't partition Iraq, we might just as well pull out now.

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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 08:51 AM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


I don't have a solution, but I think partitioning anywhere is a bad idea. It was disastrous for the people of India and Pakistan. Millions died and lives were destroyed. Families were separated. People were tortured, raped, killed. Partitioning won't work.

Iraq needs a government that recognizes the diversity of its people, not three governments that are based upon excluding those who are different.

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post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 09:03 AM
 
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


The only thing that is going to keep Iraq stable is a dictatorship or having a military running things. The different groups over there are fighting each other now, and it will get worse when the US leaves. It doesn't matter if it is next year or 10 years from now. Might as well leave now.
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post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 11:16 AM
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Re: re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypatia
I don't have a solution, but I think partitioning anywhere is a bad idea. It was disastrous for the people of India and Pakistan. Millions died and lives were destroyed. Families were separated. People were tortured, raped, killed. Partitioning won't work.
The logic "it didn't work one time so it can't work this time" doesn't fly. True, the execution of the partitioning of India was a disaster, but there was a lot of violence before the partition. Problems arose because of the mass migrations to the different regions and the governments weren't prepared to handle it. Most of the violence in recent years has been over the Kashmir region. Iraq was formed from the ill-conceived partitioning of the Ottoman empire and the current problems in the Middle East are the result of those partitions.

We have the partitioning of India as a learning experience. We know what to expect and we can plan for how to handle those problems. I just don't see any other viable solution. These people hate each other. The best thing to do is separate them. The migration and fleeing from all the violence is resulting in a natural separation of the ethnicities so it wouldn't take that much more to define specific regions.

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post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 02:46 PM
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Eventually Sadr and company would kick Maliki out, and try to form a new Iran. Of course, Saudi Arabi would get involved, perhaps by using a militant Sunni organization like Al-Qeada as a proxy, and consequently so would Iran. Perhaps fighting would wear the Iraqis down, and they'd eventually concede to sharing their country. That is hard to say, given how nihilistic a religion Islam is. Boy did we open Pandora's Box.

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post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 02:55 PM
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The idea of partitioning Iraq is rather premature in my opinion. It's based on a very simplistic idea of the war, the idea of Sunnis hating/killing Shiites and vice versa. The problem is far more complex, and won't be solved by simply separating the two groups. Besides, so much of Iraq is religiously mixed that a partition would inevitably result in massive population displacement. Even in the ideal situation that two stable, self-governing Arab states are formed, who's to say that they won't then turn on each other? In fact, a partition is likely to exacerbate the struggle for oil resources between the two groups. Who's to say that a war between two states would be any better than a civil war?

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post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 04:13 PM
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Re: re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Maslow
The logic "it didn't work one time so it can't work this time" doesn't fly. True, the execution of the partitioning of India was a disaster, but there was a lot of violence before the partition. Problems arose because of the mass migrations to the different regions and the governments weren't prepared to handle it. Most of the violence in recent years has been over the Kashmir region. Iraq was formed from the ill-conceived partitioning of the Ottoman empire and the current problems in the Middle East are the result of those partitions.

We have the partitioning of India as a learning experience. We know what to expect and we can plan for how to handle those problems. I just don't see any other viable solution. These people hate each other. The best thing to do is separate them. The migration and fleeing from all the violence is resulting in a natural separation of the ethnicities so it wouldn't take that much more to define specific regions.
We do have the partitioning of India as a learning experience, but I don't think any government organization has the ability to learn from the past. If the whole point of history is to learn from our mistakes so we don't repeat them, then we (the human race) are doing a piss poor job of it. If the Bush administration is going to be put in charge of this partitioning, then I *know* that the idea is one that won't work.

I agree with Nicolay. It think it's foolish to treat the Iraqis like children who can't play nicely together and need to be sent to their separate rooms. If anything, the problems involved with the partitioning of India and Pakistan indicate that merely separating the groups isn't going to solve anything.

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post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 04:20 PM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


Bush screwed up big time. He failed to understand the "you break it, you bought it" policy. Getting rid of Saddam was the breaking and it was real easy, but then you have to fix the nation and that's not so easy and looks like it may well not even be possible.

Bush Sr. only pushed Iraq out of Kuwait and back to their borders. He wasn't stupid enough to knock off Saddam because anybody could see that getting rid of one tyrant simply throws a nation into civil war where you'll have various factions fighting and the most powerful warlord would simply take Saddam's place, which is hardly an improvement.

If the US leaves -- and I think we should pull out immediately -- I think Iraq would fall into civil war. Of course, they seems to pretty much be doing that already despite our vast expenditure of money & lives. Iraq can't be saved and we should cut our losses and leave.
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post #11 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 05:05 PM
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Re: re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypatia
If the Bush administration is going to be put in charge of this partitioning, then I *know* that the idea is one that won't work.
That's true. He can't be in charge of it. I'm not sure how that would be accomplished, though.

Quote:
It think it's foolish to treat the Iraqis like children who can't play nicely together and need to be sent to their separate rooms. If anything, the problems involved with the partitioning of India and Pakistan indicate that merely separating the groups isn't going to solve anything.
But they are like children who can't play nicely together -- very dangerous, armed children, but children just the same.

There has been relatively little conflict since the partitioning of India. Every few years, there's fighting over the Kashmir region, but other than that it's been fairly stable. Considering the violence before the partitioning, the region might very well have been much less stable without it.

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post #12 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 05:27 PM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


I think the Iraqi people should vote on it to see if they want us to leave or stay. I'm just wondering if it is a small group of extremists (10,000-20,000 ?) that are causing all the fighting and attacking everyone there, or if the entire country doesn't want us there. Maybe there are certain regions which want our protection and others that want to do it themselves. It is a big country of 25 million, so a small number of people that want a theocracy or a hostile dictatorship should be outnumbered. But I have no idea what will happen with the sunni/****te/kurd thing. The former Yugoslavia was broken up in the 90s because of religious differences and that seemed to work out, but they didn't have to oil to split up either. I know that they need to do something over there, but if we pull out tomorrow, it will be a mess as people try to get power and rule the country.

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post #13 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-10-2007, 06:02 PM
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Iraq would not get pregnant, unless there was pre-cu.........
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post #14 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-11-2007, 03:47 AM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


Likely is that you've got Iran backing the Shias. Then you'll have Saudia Arabia and others backing the Sunnis. Turkey will be obligated to help out the Kurds. It will be a regional war/conflict, not just total Iranian domination (it isn't in the surrounding countries' interest to have a Shia/Iranian Iraq - even the Shia Iraqis don't speak the same language or have the same ethnicity). The whole Iranian control thing reeks of the domino theory, imo.

But at this point, I think it's a lot like the end of Vietnam. Screw the domino theory, just get out of there.

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post #15 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-11-2007, 09:53 AM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


The Kurds have northern Iraq running pretty well, and have the guns and troops to keep it...Even though everyone is going to want a piece of the Kirkuk oil revenues...I would envision the rest of Iraq as becoming another Beirut of the 1980's..A blasted, war zone and safe haven for militias and terrorist groups...There is already a civil war in Iraq being fought by Sunnis and Shiites, and funded by their patrons Saudi Arabia and Iran...Our troops are just sitting ducks...It doesn't matter if we stay there one more day or 10 years...All we are doing is delaying the inevitable in Iraq, and taking massive casualties to do so...But all of the politicians in America want to duck the issue, cover their political asses, and leave it to the next President to clean the mess up...Civil war, chaos, destruction, famine etc. is inevitable for most of Iraq except maybe the Kurdish north...US soldiers cannot rebuild a central government, stop the violence etc..Only Iraqis can, and they don't want to...It's like stationing troops between Israel and Palestine, and pretending that we can stop the violence and hatred between these two groups..Religious wars and blood feuds have been going on in that part of the world for thousands of years...No amount of US troops is going to be able to stop that, or make people want to live in peace..
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post #16 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-13-2007, 08:28 PM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


It is a tragic mess and I do think that a U.S. force of some kind is needed to keep things from going totally out of control. It does appear a minimum force is needed for the safety of the Iraq population. I just saw last night I think it was on Independent Lense where 50000 Iraq leave the country every day for Jordan or Syria. They showed a refugee camp of Palestinian families who were once welcomed by Saddom who were now stranded in a tent community without a country. They had nothing to do all day.
The Iraq refugees in Jordan are resented by the locals as the rent has gone way up. The Jordanian kids pick on the iraq kids. Where is the "compassion" that was in the original Mohammend teaching?
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post #17 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-14-2007, 11:12 AM
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re: What Would Happen if We Did Pull out of Iraq Today?


I want to see if the Iraqi Congress goes on vacation for all of June and July like it said it will...There is no more Iraq, the country has devolved into civil war and chaos, and we are losing more and more American troops over there every week...If they actually did take 2 months off during the meltdown of Iraq, I would say pull the plug and bring the troops home immediately...
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