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post #1 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 11:25 AM Thread Starter
 
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Polls biased against Obama


I read that pollers cannot call cell phones and a lot of young people only use cells so aren't the polls skewed to favor McCain? I guess they could be biased against McCain too if his supporters can't remember who they were going to vote for.
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post #2 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 11:34 AM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


i cant tell over the net but im pretty sure youre being sarcastic about the cell phone thing

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post #3 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 11:59 AM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


Quote:
Originally Posted by nubly
i cant tell over the net but im pretty sure youre being sarcastic about the cell phone thing
No, I'm not. I am not sure pollers are allowed to call cell phones by law.

Found a link.... http://www.wisegeek.com/why-cant-pollst ... phones.htm

I wonder if they correct for this?

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/20 ... ell_phone/
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/08/w ... ack-obama/
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post #4 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 12:27 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


I think there is some truth to that, actually. But you have to keep in mind something, the ones that are reachable by traditional phone, older people, are the ones that tend to actually vote. Young people, not so much. I think it balances out that way.

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post #5 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 12:28 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


How quickly the tune can change! The racism card cannot be too far behind....

The NRA, being on par with Nazi war criminals, should be executed for crimes against humanity. They are guilty of inflicting mass suffering upon America.
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post #6 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 12:59 PM
 
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


Quote:
Originally Posted by WinterDave
How quickly the tune can change! The racism card cannot be too far behind....
Nor is the POW card.
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post #7 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:08 PM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


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Originally Posted by WinterDave
How quickly the tune can change! The racism card cannot be too far behind....
what has changed? it has been a deadheat for several weeks now
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post #8 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:22 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


McCain had some statistically significant leads there for awhile.

Now it's back to a non-significant lead:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110266/Gallu ... ma-45.aspx

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post #9 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:33 PM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


The convention bounce is dying for McCain. I cannot understand why such a temporary bounce even exists for both parties...just shows how fickle and simple-minded our electorate is.
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post #10 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:49 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


Quote:
Originally Posted by daaaaave
The convention bounce is dying for McCain. I cannot understand why such a temporary bounce even exists for both parties...just shows how fickle and simple-minded our electorate is.
I've never understood that either. If people are still making up their minds, they shouldn't rely on the highly staged political conventions for their information. These are notoriously just a theatrical show full of platitudes, non-specifics, superficial flag waving and emotional appeals, and family photo ops. The same goes for this year.

Then again, that's the kind of thing people are satisfied with since these "bounces" do exist. So yeah, a statistically significant portion of the electorate seems to go for these stunts, so they continue.

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post #11 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 03:17 PM
 
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


"likely voters"
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post #12 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 04:36 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


Well, that's just too bad.

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post #13 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 04:44 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


You might be right that the polls are biased but what you have to remember is that the polls are already adjusted by age. If the polling firm estimates that 18-29 year olds are going to make up 17% of the vote on election day they are going to use that number in their polls even if that group only makes up 10% of their sample.

The question to ask is if there are differences between a cell phone only person and a person who has a landline who are both of the same age. I do think that there could be some hidden support for Obama missing from the polls but it's probably not a huge amount. It didn't seem to have much effect on the primary polls at least.
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post #14 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 07:44 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


I don't think it's relevant.

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post #15 of 15 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 08:59 PM
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Re: Polls biased against Obama


Quote:
Originally Posted by daaaaave
I read that pollers cannot call cell phones and a lot of young people only use cells so aren't the polls skewed to favor McCain? I guess they could be biased against McCain too if his supporters can't remember who they were going to vote for.
the cell phone argument has been around since at least 2004. and there has been no evidence to show that the polls are off...at least not yet.

as another poster mentioned, most polls are weighted.

i will say this, blacks, and i probably youngsters too, fare pretty poorly when it comes to 'likely voter' screens. different pollsters have different ways of determining a 'likely voter'. it isnt as simple as asking if you are likely to vote, because everyone would lie and say yes. so polling companies have screens to filter them out. minorities havent done so well in the screens in years past.

turnout models are also very tricky. i expect this year it will be even more tricky. i suspect many voters, mostly minorities will be turned away either due to improper registration or something nefarious like a 'felons list'

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