Next Great Depression? MIT researchers predict ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030 - Social Anxiety Forum
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post #1 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-04-2012, 06:00 PM Thread Starter
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Next Great Depression? MIT researchers predict ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030


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Next Great Depression? MIT researchers predict ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030

A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.

Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says "the world is on track for disaster" and that current evidence coincides with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth."

Produced for a group called The Club of Rome, the study's researchers created a computing model to forecast different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced and distributed in 37 different languages.
Most of the computer scenarios found population and economic growth continuing at a steady rate until about 2030. But without "drastic measures for environmental protection," the scenarios predict the likelihood of a population and economic crash.

However, the study said "unlimited economic growth" is still possible if world governments enact policies and invest in green technologies that help limit the expansion of our ecological footprint.


The Smithsonian notes that several experts strongly objected to "The Limit of Growth's" findings, including the late Yale economist Henry Wallich, who for 12 years served as a governor of the Federal Research Board and was its chief international economics expert. At the time, Wallich said attempting to regulate economic growth would be equal to "consigning billions to permanent poverty."

Turner says that perhaps the most startling find from the study is that the results of the computer scenarios were nearly identical to those predicted in similar computer scenarios used as the basis for "The Limits to Growth."
"There is a very clear warning bell being rung here," Turner said. "We are not on a sustainable trajectory."
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow...190352944.html
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post #2 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-04-2012, 07:07 PM
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So does the program assume that consumption rates are going to strictly stay at today's levels or possible technological breakthroughs? This thing seems more something to make a point about our current consumption levels being impossible to maintain [without huge breakthroughs in energy] moreso than an actual model meant to be predictive. The future may be bleak simply because of overpopulation and the using up of groundwater, but I imagine even in the worst case scenario rich nations will come out fairly well thanks to their low birth rates, better abilities to respond/cope, and of course power. When push comes to shove, we might see the relative peace we have nowadays dissolve into wars over resources, and a whole new era of colonialism. Of course we could all unite to make the best of things as well, but that doesn't seem to be the habit of humans in trying times.
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post #3 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-04-2012, 09:39 PM
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http://albartlett.org/presentations/...gy_video1.html

Watch this full video here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ

Growth is a problem when businesses/stock market and government need it. If you think everyone will earn 8-10% in the stock market for the next 40 years, some people will have to lose. And it shows why we need deflation at around the 12 min mark.

"Sure there are plenty of other fish in the sea; but you're not anywhere near the sea. You're in the desert. Alone."
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post #4 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-04-2012, 09:44 PM
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Honestly i cant wait

till it all....


comes....



crashing down.
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post #5 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 12:42 AM
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WTF 2030? We are in a depression right now. The government and media isn't admitting to it though.

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post #6 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 01:07 AM
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^ That's what I was thinking!
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post #7 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 03:19 AM
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Hey, I thought it was all going to collapse in 2012!!! Goddamned misleading doomer sites - you mean I have to wait another 18 ****ing years!!!
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post #8 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 05:44 AM
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Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious that we're already within 'global economic collapse.'
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post #9 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 06:12 AM
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WTF 2030? We are in a depression right now. The government and media isn't admitting to it though.
Yeah, and the governments just carry on with the same tired old policies that have got us into this mess and are making things worse, such as how they tackle inflation.....with more inflation! Its total madness...

And most of the general public aren't admitting it either. It seems that most people are happy to just bury their heads in the sand and have a 'well im still ok so i dont care' attitude.

Anyway, its time to start learning how to live self-sufficiently. Nobody knows how to though, as you dont get taught this stuff in schools. You just get taught how to be a slave to the system.
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post #10 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 06:46 AM
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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 06:49 AM
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Anyway, its time to start learning how to live self-sufficiently. Nobody knows how to though, as you dont get taught this stuff in schools. You just get taught how to be a slave to the system.
American doomsday/survivalist types love to hoard lots of weapons to defend the non-perishable food & gold they have hoards of.

What do their UK counterparts hoard? They haven't yet outlawed food & metal in the UK, so that can be had. Now when the fecal matter hits the fan do UK survivalists plan to toss rocks & sharp sticks?

The other day I came across something in a catalog that simply made me roll my eyes. It was a water-tight plastic container designed for one to bury survivalist supplies. It said that it could fit four AR-15s. When Billy Bob, who dropped out of the 3rd grade, buys that to hide the serious weaponry he expects to need on doomsday, he's thought to be in need of a tin foil hat & padded room.

Is this study what you get when Billy Bob doesn't drop out and gets a PhD?

P.S. You might wish to consult with the Amish as they really have this DIY thing nailed down (with handmade nails). Doubt they'll be too devastated when the one phone their entire community has goes out. Though I do hear a few really progressive Amish will use one of them high-tech power saws in raising a barn. Just imagine when the power goes out for good: "See, I told so, Jebediah. Electricity was a bad idea, but ye wouldn't listen to the elders' wisdom."
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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 12:57 PM
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I think people who lived through the great depression would laugh at everyone who is calling what we're in "economic collapse." When was the last time you guys ate, because my friend's grandpa still hordes food today after having grown up hungry and having to fight for food during the great depression.

As for the survivalist stuff, I wouldn't go overboard, but I don't think it is a bad idea to have some "just in case" supplies stored away for a worst case scenario. It might seem silly if nothing ever happens, but if **** hit the fan, you might find yourself very thankful to have spent a bit of money on a few bags of rice, MREs, a gun, and ammo.
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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-05-2012, 04:04 PM
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I think people who lived through the great depression would laugh at everyone who is calling what we're in "economic collapse." When was the last time you guys ate, because my friend's grandpa still hordes food today after having grown up hungry and having to fight for food during the great depression.
Well yeah, we're only at the tip of it, but well within it. This crash is not an overnight one. It is basically a series of small collapses, that slowly bring the whole thing down.
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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-06-2012, 12:30 AM
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In 2006 I read an extremely convincing article that basically explained why, by 2009, the American dollor was going to collapse horribly and fling us into a new era where China is the main super power. Well obviously 2009 rolled around and nothing of the sort happened (though there was a market crash in 08, it was all about housing and banks- not about oil like aforementioned convincing article claimed). Ever since then I basically have no trust for these economic doomsday predictions- for better or for worse.
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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-06-2012, 02:48 AM
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EMP Attack Would Decimate America

Monday, April 5, 2010 08:58 AM


By: Ronald Kessler
America is totally unprepared for an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that would set civilization back to the 1800s, Dr. William Graham, who was chairman of the bipartisan congressional Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack, tells Newsmax.

An EMP attack occurs when a nuclear bomb explodes in the atmosphere. The electromagnetic pulse generated by the blast would fry microchips, which are at the heart of electronic devices, throughout North America.

In a rare interview, Graham, who was Ronald Reagan’s science adviser, predicts the vast majority of Americans would die from starvation or disease or would freeze to death. Yet he says that while the military is largely protected from an EMP attack, the government has done virtually nothing to address the effects of such an attack on the civilian sector.

Without that infrastructure, the military would find it difficult to operate as well. Since microchips control vehicles, trains, and airplanes, most would become inoperable.

No one could get to work.

An EMP attack “could not only take down power grids, which are fragile anyway in this country, and telecommunications networks, and financial networks, and traffic controls and many other things, but in addition, there is a very close interrelationship among those national infrastructure capabilities,” Graham says.

“So, for example, we need telecommunications to re-establish the power network, and we need the power network to keep telecommunications going for more than a few hours. And we need the financial network to continue to operate to maintain the economy, we need the transportation system, roads, street lights, control systems, to operate just to get people to the failed power, telecommunication and other systems,” he adds.

Life after an EMP attack “would probably be something that you might imagine life to be like around the late 1800s but with several times the population we had in those days, and without the ability of the country to support and sustain all those people,” Graham says. “They wouldn’t have power. Food supplies would be greatly taken out by the lack of transportation, telecommunication, power for refrigeration and so on.”

Yet life would be far more primitive than even that because in the 1800s, Americans had food from their own farms and police who rode on horseback.

“We don’t have as many horses, and we tend to depend on radios for communication now, that again need power,” Graham notes. “Radios themselves tend to be vulnerable to this if they’re not designed with protection from EMP in mind, because they’re connected to antennas. Anything that looks like an antenna can pick up the EMP signal and conduct it to the electronics, causing it to fail.”

The NRA, being on par with Nazi war criminals, should be executed for crimes against humanity. They are guilty of inflicting mass suffering upon America.
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post #16 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-06-2012, 02:49 AM
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"Most computers would become inoperable, Graham says.

“Most computers are connected to things that either are antennas or look like antennas,” he says. “Even a mouse cable looks like an antenna to an electromagnetic signal. Certainly power lines, telecommunication lines, all act as antennas to pick up EMP signals and check them in the computers. And we have done tests with computers, and EMP tends to burn out the computer circuits.”

Stock and banking transactions would also be wiped out.

“Most financial records are stored electronically. ATMs, which depend upon both power and telecommunications, would not be available; banks, which try to back up records but in general aren’t strongly aware of the EMP problem, would face the problem of unprotected storage and computer systems,” Graham says. “And so it’s very likely that financial and stock brokerage records would at a minimum not be accessible and might not be available at all.”

An EMP attack could be launched by a country such as North Korea or Iran or by terrorists, Graham says. A severe geomagnetic storm — which will definitely occur one day — could cause nearly as much damage.

“The intelligent way to address this is to look at all of these threats and to develop a protection against all of them, not just against one at a time,” Graham observes.

Unlike protection against a nuclear blast, shielding to protect against EMP is a relative bargain. As noted in the Newsmax story "EMP Attack Could Wipe Out U.S.," the 300 transformers that are critical to the power grid could be protected for $200 million to $400 million.

Yet so far, neither power companies nor banks, stock brokerage firms, nor other industries have seen fit to shield their facilities against an EMP strike.

“In talking to the various commercial organizations, they have said, "’Look, it’s not our job to protect the country against a nuclear attack,’” Graham says. “’It’s our job to have the country operate under normal conditions. It’s the military’s job to protect the country in a nuclear attack.’”

Just as the U.S. was unprepared for the 9/11 attack, so is it unprepared for an EMP attack that would be millions of times more devastating.

“Having been confirmed into three different government positions by the Senate, I have some experience in dealing with the bureaucracy,” Graham says. “Bureaucrats never like to deal with a problem before it happens the first time. It’s much easier to ignore a problem that might happen, until it happens.”

The blame rests with both Democrats and Republicans.

“It was a failure in the last administration; it’s a failure in this administration,” Graham notes. “No one has been given the job of marshaling our capabilities — governmental, private, and military — to prepare for this problem.”

http://www.newsmax.com/RonaldKessler...4/05/id/354742

The NRA, being on par with Nazi war criminals, should be executed for crimes against humanity. They are guilty of inflicting mass suffering upon America.
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post #17 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-06-2012, 05:43 AM
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Quote:
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In 2006 I read an extremely convincing article that basically explained why, by 2009, the American dollor was going to collapse horribly and fling us into a new era where China is the main super power. Well obviously 2009 rolled around and nothing of the sort happened (though there was a market crash in 08, it was all about housing and banks- not about oil like aforementioned convincing article claimed). Ever since then I basically have no trust for these economic doomsday predictions- for better or for worse.
The year might be off because instead of a gradual slow decline, you can pump more in the short term and then drop off the cliff later.

Although in other countries gas is $6 and maybe even $9 a gallon and they are surviving. The problem starts when farms become unprofitable and no one wants to do that work anymore...

As for the EMP,
http://empcommission.org/
http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ficti...htsout1-10.pdf
http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ficti...tsout11-20.pdf

I'm not sure it would be total anarchy, you would get a lot of people migrating from the center of the blast radius to the unaffected areas. And there would be large imports of products from outside of the blast radius to help. A biological virus that wipes out billions would be a lot scarier to me.
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post #18 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-06-2012, 10:02 AM
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WTF 2030? We are in a depression right now. The government and media isn't admitting to it though.
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^ That's what I was thinking!
Technically, we're not - but we are certainly treading water.
This economy needs defibrilation and Obama's cronies have misplaced the "Clear!" paddles.

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post #19 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-07-2012, 10:45 AM
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There is no way that this is a depression or even close to it. It isn't really a recession either.

They do need to update the definition. 25% unemployment in the 22-64 age bracket, excluding early retirees = recession, 50% unemployment = depression.

"Sure there are plenty of other fish in the sea; but you're not anywhere near the sea. You're in the desert. Alone."
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post #20 of 21 (permalink) Old 04-07-2012, 10:53 AM
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^ It's a recession. The government just not saying it.
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