New poll: Trump's support has doubled - Social Anxiety Forum
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post #1 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 04:09 PM Thread Starter
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New poll: Trump's support has doubled


Trump widens lead in new poll

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...-national-poll

Donald Trump has a more than 2-to-1 lead over the next closest contender in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a poll released Monday by Monmouth University.

Trump takes 26 percent support, followed by Jeb Bush at 12 percent.

Trump’s support has doubled in the poll since mid-July, when he had at 13 percent support and trailing Bush, who was in the lead at 15 percent.

It’s the latest survey to show the businessman and reality TV star pulling away from the pack of Republican presidential candidates nationally.

Trump now holds a 7.5-percentage-point lead over his next closest competitor in the field, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. That lead will increase once the Monmouth survey is factored in.

The Monmouth poll found Trump pulling support from all factions of the party.

Trump has a 20-point lead over Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker among Tea Party supporters, and leads him by 11 points among those who identify as “very conservative.” Trump has an 8-point lead over Bush, a former Florida governor, among those who identify as “somewhat conservative,” and also leads Bush by 8 points among those who describe themselves as moderates.

Trump leads in every age category, and is the top choice of men and women in the survey.

His favorability rating has improved dramatically with 52 percent saying they have a positive view of Trump, against 35 percent who view him negatively. Before Trump launched his presidential bid in June, only 20 percent had a positive view of him, compared to 55 percent who viewed him negatively.

“Republican support for Donald Trump just continues to grow with no clear sense of who his constituency really is,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This makes it very difficult for his opponents to figure out how to take him on in the upcoming debate.”

Walker is in third place in the poll at 11 percent support, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6 percent each. Rounding out the top 10 are Ben Carson at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 4 percent a piece, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 3 percent.

Fox News is capping Thursday’s first presidential debate at 10 based on national polling numbers, and it appears increasingly likely that Christie and Kasich will nab the final two spots on the debate stage.

If that happens, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is likely to be unlucky number 11. He is tied for 11th place in the Monmouth poll with Carly Fiorina at 2 percent support.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore all took 1 percent support or less in the poll, and will likely be left off the primetime debate stage as well.

Fox News is holding a forum earlier on Thursday for those who don’t make the cut for the main event.

The survey found a plurality of Republican voters aren’t happy with the first debate format.

Forty-five percent said there should be back-to-back debates with the field split randomly between the two, while 29 percent said all of the candidates should be on stage at the same time. Only 23 percent said the debate should be limited to a top 10 based on national polling numbers.

According to the Monmouth analysis, only Trump, Bush, Walker, Cruz and Huckabee are in a defined top tier of candidates, while the candidates in sixth place to 15th place are within the margin of error of the top 10.

“I suppose Fox hoped that a top tier would emerge by the time the first debate rolled around,” said Murray. “But based on current polling, there’s no good rationale for arbitrarily selecting a top 10.”

The Monmouth University poll of 423 registered Republican voters was conducted between July 30 and Aug. 2 and has a 4.8-percentage-point margin of error.
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post #2 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 04:17 PM
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This should be considered a national tragedy.
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post #3 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 04:34 PM Thread Starter
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You're already seeing a change in the way his fellow Republicans treat him. He's no longer the weird uncle at the family picnic. You don't hear the words "crazy" or "clown" coming from them anymore. They now talk about how to debate him.

I watched 'Meet The Press' yesterday, they focused on him for about half the show. And instead of making fun of him, they were talking about why he's so popular. And, amazingly, they got it right. They said it shows the voters are fed up with traditional politics and politicians. They want change. And this is also why Sanders is doing better than expected on the Democrat side and why Mrs. Clinton is having a hard time gaining traction. Clinton and Bush are considered to be The Establishment - More of the same ol' politics. People have had enough of that.

I'm hoping the GOP will catch on and change their policies, but I'm not betting on it.
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post #4 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 05:13 PM Thread Starter
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Fox News Poll: New high for Trump, new low for Clinton

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015.../?intcmp=hpbt1

Businessman Donald Trump continues to gain ground in the race for the Republican nomination. What’s more, the number of GOP primary voters saying they would at least consider backing Trump has more than doubled in the last two months. Meanwhile, support for Democratic frontrunner former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains high, despite sliding to its lowest yet.

These are some of the findings from the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 presidential race.

Trump receives the backing of 26 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters -- up from 18 percent in mid-July and 11 percent a month ago. That’s not only the highest level of support for Trump, but it’s also the highest any GOP candidate has received since the Fox poll began asking the question in December 2013.

Trump’s rise hasn’t hurt former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who garners 15 percent and is the only other Republican in double-digits. He was at 14 percent in mid-July and 15 percent in June.
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post #5 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 05:17 PM
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Have you seen fox news coverage of Trump? It's pretty much been as pro-Trump as it gets. Maybe that's why his numbers have skyrocketed. *shrugs*
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post #6 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 05:22 PM Thread Starter
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Have you seen fox news coverage of Trump? It's pretty much been as pro-Trump as it gets. Maybe that's why his numbers have skyrocketed. *shrugs*
Media attention helps. But the reason he's so popular is his message. He's saying what everyone is thinking but are afraid to talk about. People have had it with Washington, D.C. politics as usual. They want someone who is not a politician to take back our country.

But if he lays an egg at the debates his support could collapse overnight. Trump admits he's not a debater. He doesn't debate everyday like politicians do. He's a negotiator. He's a businessman. As long as he stays on message and doesn't put his foot in his mouth, he'll be just fine.
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post #7 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 05:40 PM
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You can't debate someone whose support relies on no rational ideas but rather some sort of larger cultural emotion and fascination with the American Lie.

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post #8 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 05:53 PM
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If Trump is the Republican nominee the Dems will win in a landslide.
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post #9 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 06:02 PM
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Wow so he has went from being supported by a small number of right wing, reactionaries to a larger number of right wing reactionaries means he may make it to the white house lolz.
His rolling mishaps building golf courses in the UK, while trying to the tell the countries inhabitants that he knows better than any of the countries politician or scientists is laughable.
Having come from a privilege back ground, the loud mouth moron ain't got a leg to stand on. - Self made indeed.
Plus Palin as a running mate, really?? That seemed like a good idea??

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post #10 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 06:05 PM Thread Starter
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If Trump is the Republican nominee the Dems will win in a landslide.
He won't be the nominee.

"We need a healthy economy and we shouldn't be embarrassed about our system. If you want to look at a system that is non-capitalistic, just take a look at what was perhaps the wealthiest country in the world and today people are starving to death. It's called Venezuela."

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post #11 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 06:09 PM
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I want to watch the debate really bad just to laugh at trump, but I don't have live TV. Maybe they are streaming it...
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post #12 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 06:10 PM Thread Starter
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I want to watch the debate really bad just to laugh at trump, but I don't have live TV. Maybe they are streaming it...
I know it's on the radio. Probably can find it online, I'm sure.

"We need a healthy economy and we shouldn't be embarrassed about our system. If you want to look at a system that is non-capitalistic, just take a look at what was perhaps the wealthiest country in the world and today people are starving to death. It's called Venezuela."

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post #13 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 06:17 PM
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I know it's on the radio. Probably can find it online, I'm sure.
Looks like it'll be streamed on the CNN android app. Probably the FOX app too, if you swing that way. I use chromecast to, well, cast it to my tv. Therefore, no need for cable.
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post #14 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 06:59 PM
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Great news for Democrats and the country. I hope the trend continues.
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post #15 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 09:31 PM
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This is my theory on Trump. He's only in this for attention and to keep his name relevant, and he doesn't actually want to become president. So he says all kinds of ridiculous things to get attention. But now he seems to be the front runner, so to avoid the risk of actually becoming president, he needs to ramp up the crazy in an attempt to turn people away (and getting his much needed attention in the process). So he will become more and more crazy as time goes on. Unfortunately, it seems that being crazy is making him more popular, not less. So he'll be really going full clown in the future, desperately trying to sabotage himself. That's my prediction anyway.
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post #16 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-03-2015, 10:51 PM
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This is my theory on Trump. He's only in this for attention and to keep his name relevant, and he doesn't actually want to become president. So he says all kinds of ridiculous things to get attention. But now he seems to be the front runner, so to avoid the risk of actually becoming president, he needs to ramp up the crazy in an attempt to turn people away (and getting his much needed attention in the process). So he will become more and more crazy as time goes on. Unfortunately, it seems that being crazy is making him more popular, not less. So he'll be really going full clown in the future, desperately trying to sabotage himself. That's my prediction anyway.
He needs to start preaching scientology in the middle of a televised speech. That oughta bring his poll numbers down.

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post #17 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-04-2015, 08:12 AM
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He needs to start preaching scientology in the middle of a televised speech. That oughta bring his poll numbers down.
He'd win the favor of every celebrity in the United States and he'd really get a lot of favors thrown his way.

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
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post #18 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-04-2015, 04:37 PM Thread Starter
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Even Leftie reporters are eating their words...


Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...ump-heres-why/

By Chris Cillizza - August 4 at 10:57 AM

Donald Trump is now doubling the rest of the Republican field in the average of the last five national polls. And polling out of early states like New Hampshire puts him in the pole position in those places too.

All of which makes having written a piece on June 17 headlined, "Why no one should take Donald Trump seriously, in one very simple chart" that argued why, well, no one should take Donald Trump seriously, pretty embarrassing. Not to mention wrong.

In case your detective work is at "True Detective" season 2 levels -- for non-show watchers, that means not so good -- I am the person who wrote that piece dismissing The Donald as even a semi-serious candidate for the presidency. My reasoning was pretty straightforward: Trump was regarded incredibly negatively by Republican voters. Twenty-three percent of GOP voters had a favorable opinion of Trump in a May Washington Post-ABC News poll, while 65 percent viewed him negatively. Eleven percent of Republicans felt strongly favorably toward Trump; 43 percent felt strongly negatively.

At the time, I wrote this:

You cannot and do not win anything when your numbers look like Trump's. I can't say it any more clearly than that. There's nothing you can say or do -- not that Trump would ever even consider going on an image rehabilitation tour -- to change how people feel about you. Republicans know Trump. And they really, really don't like him.

And then, opinions about Trump among Republicans totally flipped.

That same Post-ABC poll that showed Trump at 23/65 in his favorable/unfavorable ratings among Republicans in May suddenly revealed an absolutely unprecedented change in Trump's favor in July. In that latter (and later) poll, 57 percent of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, while 40 percent regarded him unfavorably.

That same sort of change was happening in other polls too. In June, a Fox News poll showed that almost six in 10 Republicans (59 percent) would never vote for Trump under any circumstances. In a Fox News survey released Monday night, that number was down to 33 percent. It's not great that one in three Republicans say they would never vote for you. But, it's a whole hell of a lot better than if 60 percent said it.

Why did I miss Trump's appeal so badly? Simply put: I had NEVER EVER seen a reversal in how people perceive a candidate who is as well known as Trump -- much less a reversal in such a short period of time. I based my conclusion that Trump would never be a relevant player in the Republican primary fight on the ideas that once people 1) know you and 2) don't like you, you can't change those twin realities much.

That was 100 percent true. Until Donald Trump proved it (and me) wrong.

Point taken. Never say "never" in politics. Thanks for reminding me of that old adage, Donald.
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post #19 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-04-2015, 05:09 PM
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He's still a Republican.
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post #20 of 156 (permalink) Old 08-04-2015, 05:38 PM
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I think Trump is beginning to believe he can actually be president, and may have started this as a big stunt but is getting more convinced he is spear-heading a 'movement' (that's more than just the same old tea-party people and some moderate democrats and low informed voters caught in the hype).

He will collapse at some point, it's just a question of when? I think he might last a lot longer than a lot of liberals have been predicting.

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