Donald Trump Isnít Going to Be President - Social Anxiety Forum
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post #1 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 11:59 AM Thread Starter
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Donald Trump Isnít Going to Be President


He’d have to win unprecedented shares of the very kinds of voters who hate him: blacks, Latinos, and women.

"Now that Donald Trump is just a few delegates away from the Republican nomination, conversation among commentators has turned to his electability and his “pivot” to the general election. The same pundits who ignored the polls to say Trump would lose the nomination now urge us to take his odds seriously. He’ll take on a more “presidential tone.” He’ll attack Hillary Clinton on all sides. He’ll be formidable. He might even win.

Or at least, that’s the argument.

But before we get there, we have to answer a simple question. How will Donald Trump improve on Mitt Romney’s campaign for president? What will he win that Romney lost?

Romney wasn’t a bad candidate. He ran a competent and largely professional campaign against an incumbent who presided over high unemployment and slow growth. No, Romney wasn’t favored, but he also had a better shot than most candidates who run against a sitting president. If you believe that Trump can win—absent an exogenous shock like a terrorist attack or recession—you need to show how he beats Romney. You need to move this from the realm of speculation and into the world as it exists. The idea of Trump as a plausible winner is rooted in the same error that drove pundits to discount and dismiss him as late as the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries. Then, observers saw the polls—which accurately showed his appeal to a cross-section of Republican voters—but refused to believe them. It was unthinkable that a field of ostensibly talented candidates would fail to stop Trump before he gained traction.

That’s what happened. If Trump had entered the race as an Icarus-type—a candidate who shoots to the top but withers under the heat—then by the fall, he was something different. He was a genuine presence in a crowded field with real support among Republican voters. No one bothered to stop him. Afraid of alienating Trump’s supporters, GOP leaders disarmed themselves; fearful of Trump’s attacks, Republican donors refused to fund a confrontation; complacent about his threat, Republican candidates focused on clearing their respective “lanes” rather than stopping the leader in the field. By the time Republican voters went to the ballot box, Trump had cultivated a following.

None of that is operative in the general election. Unlike Republicans, Democrats plan to hit Trump with a fusillade of attacks from all directions. And they plan to exploit weaknesses that Republicans didn’t touch until it was too late to stop Trump.They’ll hit Trump for his open and vicious misogyny; they’ll publicize his history of racism and discrimination; they’ll attack him where he’s strong with stories of ordinary people he’s scammed and defrauded; they’ll emphasize the fact that he doesn’t know anything about the world or governing.

Fed on years of anti-establishment rage and white identity politics, Republican base voters cheered when Trump toppled traditional politicians and rallied to his side when he called for a wall with Mexico and a ban on Muslims. Like Sharron Angle, Todd Akin, and Christine O’Donnell, Trump is tailor-made for a distrustful and angry plurality of the Republican Party. But the same polls that showed Trump at the top of the GOP primary also put him far behind in a general election. Like his predecessors on the fringe, Trump is anathema to ordinary voters.

Which brings us back to our question. If Trump is a viable general election candidate—if he has a shot at the White House—how does he do it? How does he improve on Mitt Romney?

Let’s look at the popular vote. Trump needs to win about 3 million more votes to turn the tide. He needs to do that in an environment where the incumbent president is popular, the economy is growing, and most people are satisfied with their direction in life. By itself, that’s difficult. Let’s look at an electoral map. To succeed where Romney failed, Trump needs to flip at least 69 electoral votes. If he wins the four largest swing states—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia—plus New Hampshire, he wins. If he breaks into the Midwest, he wins. If he captures the entire South, plus New Hampshire or Iowa, he wins.

But how does this happen in practice? Florida, for example, is critical. Republicans can’t win without it. To flip the state, Trump has to outperform Romney with Latino voters—there just aren’t enough non-Hispanic whites to make up the difference. How does Trump fare among Latinos?

Eighty-seven percent of all Latino voters have a negative view of Trump, according to a new Latino Decisions national survey. In Florida, it’s 84 percent. In other Latino heavy swing states like Colorado and Nevada, it’s 91 percent and 87 percent, respectively. If Trump loses 87 percent of Latino voters nationwide (and nothing else changes from 2012), the Democrats add North Carolina to their 2012 haul as well as 8 million more popular votes.

OK, well, what about black Americans? There aren’t any detailed polls of blacks vis-ŗ-vis Trump, but most national surveys show disapproval in the 80 to 90 percent range. If black turnout stays at its present trajectory, Trump will need to crack 15 percent with blacks to peel critical swing states from Democrats. (A Trump who could accomplish that is also a Trump who is clearly winning.) No Republican has secured more than 15 percent of the black vote in 60 years.

Trump is deeply unpopular with women, too. Seventy percent hold a negative view, according to a recent Gallup survey. If Trump loses 70 percent of women, then he’s lost, period.

What about white voters? The white share of the electorate has shrunk 2 points to 69 percent, while the Hispanic, black, and Asian shares have grown. In fact, of the 10.7 million increase in eligible voters, the large majority comes from nonwhite groups. If nothing else about the 2012 results change, the Democratic candidate will win with more votes across the board. Given that fact, as Greg Sargent details for the Washington Post, Trump would have to outperform Romney by substantial margins among whites to win Rust Belt states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Donald Trump begins the general election with a huge deficit in head-to-head polls, deep unpopularity, and major demographic headwinds. Unless he wins unprecedented shares of black and Latino voters, or, barring any improvement with nonwhite voters, unless he wins unprecedented shares of white voters, he loses. And he has to do this while running as the most unpopular nominee in 30 years of polling. He has to do it while running against a Democratic Party operating at full strength, with popular surrogates (including a former president) crisscrossing the country against his campaign. He has to do it with a divided Republican Party. He has to do it while somehow tempering his deep-seated misogyny and racism. All this, again, in a growing economy with a well-liked president—solid conditions for a Democratic candidate.

Donald Trump has to become a radically different person to win.

Donald Trump isn’t going to win."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...president.html
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post #2 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:01 PM
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Hillary is so far ahead of him he has no chance. Even the crazy old commie has a better chance than him.

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post #3 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:04 PM
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I think you're way overestimating the number of people who will bother to show up for Hillary. She has close to the same unfavorability ratings as Trump plus a lot more scandals and the FBI investigation that could put her in bars at any point.
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post #4 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:17 PM
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I'm worried that circumstances can conspire to make Trump president.

For example:

1. Hillary is indicted
2. There is a terrorist attack from a Syrian immigrant
3. Millennials don't show up to vote for Hillary

ďWe have to continually be jumping off cliffs and developing our wings on the way down.Ē

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post #5 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:24 PM
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If a known criminal like Hillary Clinton becomes president, US and probably the rest of the world will regret it deeply one way or the other . The only US politician i respected was Ron Paul and if i was a an american i would support Trump no doubt about it . Trump is not a perfect man but at least he is not a slimebag like every member of the Clinton family .
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post #6 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AngelClare View Post
I'm worried that circumstances can conspire to make Trump president.

For example:

1. Hillary is indicted
2. There is a terrorist attack from a Syrian immigrant
3. Millennials don't show up to vote for Hillary
Bernie would beat trump by 20%, by choosing Hillary #1 and #3 are pretty much guaranteed.
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post #7 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:38 PM Thread Starter
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It's not going to be easy or a shoe-in for Democrats...

They have a very unpopular candidate of their own who has very high negatives and a lot of baggage....

Trump is a master of today's media culture....

But those of you who think that Hillary is more dishonest and scandal ridden then Trump have simply not researched the Donald's past....

Key voting blocs and how they turn out:
Females, minorities, the young, and Blue Collar Democrats in the 'Rust Belt'....

Can Hillary energize her base, can Trump peel away Blue Collar Democrats?

This is probably the most honest that Cruz has been in the whole campaign:
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post #8 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:50 PM
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I want sanders to win it but i dont expect it.

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post #9 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 12:59 PM
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He has a very good chance because Bernie supporters either won't show up or will cast a vote against Hillary because she's such a sleazeball. And I say good riddance. Trump and Hillary aren't really that different, so I can't really see the need to stop Trump any more than Hillary. They're both sellout con-artists. And let's not forget that a huge number of people hate Hillary too, from both the left and right. This is one of the worst choices I've seen in a US election for a long time, which is why I think Americans should vote for a third party candidate.
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post #10 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WinterDave View Post
He’d have to win unprecedented shares of the very kinds of voters who hate him: blacks, Latinos, and women.
Looks like this lilly white male will be forced to vote for a man who has a dead cat stapled to his head.

I voted for Cruz in the primary.

8 years of Obama was hellish enough. Years ago I called them Hilbama as I couldn't find any substantive difference between them, other than one owns a whole lot of pants suits.

Both Hillary & Obama have openly lavished praise upon Australian gun control, that's so extreme it constitutes an effective ban. The Aussies confiscated & destroyed 630,000 firearms and even a Ruger 10/22 that a Boy Scout might well use to earn a merit badge in marksmanship is illegal in the land down under (along with every other semi-auto rifle). Aussies need a permission slip from their doctor declaring that they are "fit & proper" to own firearms at all (and even then we're talking about a very limited variety of guns, all with draconian restrictions).

This must me be the "common sense" gun control (read: ban) they claim to support.

Google the term "Hillary Hole" to get some idea of how much the pro-gun community hates her. Please note that no police nor military on Earth would accept a dumbass lock on their guns, thus you won't find this "safety feature" on Glock, which largely serves police & military.
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post #11 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AngelClare View Post
I'm worried that circumstances can conspire to make Trump president.

For example:

1. Hillary is indicted
2. There is a terrorist attack from a Syrian immigrant
3. Millennials don't show up to vote for Hillary
They already don't like her.

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post #12 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Genevievee View Post
If a known criminal like Hillary Clinton becomes president, US and probably the rest of the world will regret it deeply one way or the other . The only US politician i respected was Ron Paul and if i was a an american i would support Trump no doubt about it . Trump is not a perfect man but at least he is not a slimebag like every member of the Clinton family .
The Obama regret has already started for many here. The man is a mess.
He wants to run the UN, so I'd watch out for him - keep him OUT of the UN!

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post #13 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 02:55 PM
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Trump is actually the ideal GOP candidate. He's a belligerent know-nothing who complains about everything but offers no solutions to anything. The only reason he's not well liked by the GOP establishment is, he doesn't tow the party line. He actually criticized GWB, and that's a no-no in GOP land.
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post #14 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 03:04 PM
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The Obama regret has already started for many here. The man is a mess.
He wants to run the UN, so I'd watch out for him - keep him OUT of the UN!
Obama received a nobel prize for peace and then his administration bombed Libya and with the the help of islamic terrorists who were basically the al qaeda turned the country (which was one of the most richest countries in Africa ) back to stone age .
That is when i lost all respect for that man . And i don't even want to mention the benghazi incident . I'm not american so i don't really want to get into that , but people who defended that building should have gotten the medal of honor since they were betrayed by their own people .
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post #15 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 03:23 PM
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^ Obama has actually been in 7 countries (Bush: 4), bombing the crap out of them. And he extended the Patriot Act. Terrible Bushisms turned worse by someone we still find as a good president. A liberal one. We just don't talk about it. It's so odd. Disheartening. Conservative media is fine with it, but they have to be a good soldier and pick on the Democrat for what they deem as faults. Like Obamacare and things. Liberal media won't touch it because it's not part of their narrative.

I also don't think Trump will win. Clinton will take it. She's got the name, the right party for the culture climate, and even simply her gender is winning it for voters. She's a symbol for progression, albeit very superficially. But it seems people don't care. They don't care about her flip-flopping, they don't care about her political scandals, her ineptitude as SoS (unfortunate acronym)... They care about her regurgitation of favorings in social and political polls and follows it with, "I promise." She's a warhawk disguised as a liberal dove, and everyone does not care.

I'm a different kind of thinker--kinda, I guess--so I'm actually really fascinated by all of her dominos and the power of her symbolism over substance. But yes, still cringing.

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It means you're sane and reacting from something that was insane.
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post #16 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 03:27 PM
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They already don't like her.
I agree. A lot of the younger voters lost any respect they had for her months and months ago....that really shouldn't be anything new to anyone. Bernie has the younger voters (but turnout is still questionable). Besides Hillary just doesn't come across as relatable or likeable (she comes off as stiff and that fake, phony laugh, ffs, that just alienates everyone).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Genevievee View Post
And i don't even want to mention the benghazi incident . I'm not american so i don't really want to get into that , but people who defended that building should have gotten the medal of honor since they were betrayed by their own people .
Yeah the Benghazi incident is one of the many things that convinced me she has absolutely no place being Commander in Chief. That was an embarrassment. She personally has the blood of US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans' all over her hands. She very clearly lied to the American people after it happened and claimed it was not a terrorist attack....there's no disputing that. It took her more than two weeks after the attacks to finally admit it was terrorist-related. There are reports that before and during the attacks the requests for backup and increased security were ignored. And then there's her infamous "What difference, at this point, does it make" statement at the Senate hearings on Benghazi. What difference at this point does it make? Wow. Just. Wow. Mind = blown.
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post #17 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 03:30 PM
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The election pretty much boils down to Globalists vs Protectionists. And it doesn't matter who wins, really; the world is doomed either way.

"I might be great tomorrow, but hopeless yesterday"
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post #18 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 03:30 PM
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He is facing his most significant challenge now, but he isn't done yet.

It is an understatement to say that Hillary Clinton has baggage.


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post #19 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Genevievee View Post
If a known criminal like Hillary Clinton becomes president, US and probably the rest of the world will regret it deeply one way or the other . The only US politician i respected was Ron Paul and if i was a an american i would support Trump no doubt about it . Trump is not a perfect man but at least he is not a slimebag like every member of the Clinton family .
Just because Hillary is a known criminal doesn't make her any worse than every other member of government who are unknown criminals
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post #20 of 67 (permalink) Old 05-04-2016, 04:21 PM
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Just because Hillary is a known criminal doesn't make her any worse than every other member of government who are unknown criminals
Exactly, Trump is not a career politician (member of the government) although i am aware that he gave funds to Clintons in the distant past i truly believe that his heart is in the the right place now.He is not a perfect man by a long shot but i don't see anyone else standing up to this criminals .
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