Obama's Path to 270 Electoral Votes:
-- The Pacific states (WA, OR, CA, HI) are a given. +77 electoral votes; 193 remaining votes to win.
-- The Midwest (MN, IA, WI, IL, MI) has a chunk of states that are all polling double-digit Obama leads. +65 electoral votes; 128 remaining votes to win.
-- New York, the northeastern states, and Washington DC (ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC) are all very strongly behind Obama. He has double-digit poll leads in every single one of these states individually. +96 electoral votes; 32 remaining votes to win.
Just adding the electoral votes of states in which Obama has DOUBLE-DIGIT leads brings him within 32 electoral votes of victory. Amazing.
-- Next, Pennsylvania is the most obvious choice. Ten recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 52%-44%. That's obviously a huge lead. Despite McCain's best efforts to change the poll numbers with extra time spent here, it hasn't worked. +21 electoral votes; 11 remaining votes to win.
-- Unlike John Kerry, Obama is polling well in New Mexico (8% lead) and Colorado (7% lead). These should be pretty easy states to pick up for Obama, comparable to Pennsylvania's odds. +14 electoral votes. Victory.
There are a number of other states that could vote Obama. See below for how he'll surpass 300 electoral votes.
-----Nevada. Six recent polls have Obama ahead 50%-44% here.
-----Virginia. Eight recent polls have Obama ahead 50%-45% here.
-----Ohio. Nine recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 49%-44% in Ohio.
-----Florida. Nine recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 49%-45% in Florida.
-----North Carolina. Nine recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 48%-46% in North Carolina. Nearly a toss-up.
-----Missouri. Seven recent polls show 48%-47% lead for McCain. Statistical dead heat. Turnout is crucial.
-----North Dakota. Statistical toss-up with 1% McCain advantage, but not a super strong option for Obama given the state's history in voting.
-----Indiana. Five recent polls show small McCain lead, 48%-46%. Toss-up, but advantage McCain.
I predict 334-204 Obama victory.