How Obama will reach 270

[ardrum]

Obama's Path to 270 Electoral Votes:

-- The Pacific states (WA, OR, CA, HI) are a given. +77 electoral votes; 193 remaining votes to win.

-- The Midwest (MN, IA, WI, IL, MI) has a chunk of states that are all polling double-digit Obama leads. +65 electoral votes; 128 remaining votes to win.

-- New York, the northeastern states, and Washington DC (ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC) are all very strongly behind Obama. He has double-digit poll leads in every single one of these states individually. +96 electoral votes; 32 remaining votes to win.

Just adding the electoral votes of states in which Obama has DOUBLE-DIGIT leads brings him within 32 electoral votes of victory. Amazing.

-- Next, Pennsylvania is the most obvious choice. Ten recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 52%-44%. That's obviously a huge lead. Despite McCain's best efforts to change the poll numbers with extra time spent here, it hasn't worked. +21 electoral votes; 11 remaining votes to win.

-- Unlike John Kerry, Obama is polling well in New Mexico (8% lead) and Colorado (7% lead). These should be pretty easy states to pick up for Obama, comparable to Pennsylvania's odds. +14 electoral votes. Victory.


There are a number of other states that could vote Obama. See below for how he'll surpass 300 electoral votes.

-----Nevada. Six recent polls have Obama ahead 50%-44% here.
-----Virginia. Eight recent polls have Obama ahead 50%-45% here.
-----Ohio. Nine recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 49%-44% in Ohio.
-----Florida. Nine recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 49%-45% in Florida.
-----North Carolina. Nine recent polls have Obama collectively ahead 48%-46% in North Carolina. Nearly a toss-up.
-----Missouri. Seven recent polls show 48%-47% lead for McCain. Statistical dead heat. Turnout is crucial.
-----North Dakota. Statistical toss-up with 1% McCain advantage, but not a super strong option for Obama given the state's history in voting.
-----Indiana. Five recent polls show small McCain lead, 48%-46%. Toss-up, but advantage McCain.



I predict 334-204 Obama victory.

[Mr. Orange]

Yeah man, I agree with you for this. Nice analysis. I was researching this last night, and it is staggering the advantage that Obama has in general. A McCain victory would be a real shocker at this point. I can't wait to exercise my right to vote for the first time tomorrow!! Obama/Biden '08!

[copper]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. After two screwed up elections I believe anything can happen.

[millenniumman75]

These are just polls - they are only sample of, what, 25,000 people maximum each?
Go to urban areas, more liberal...

[ardrum]

There is decreasing marginal gain from polling beyond a few thousand. So long as the samples are random, a few thousand is quite adequate. In addition, I'm using aggregate results of polls to further control for statistical outliers.

[meaferal]

as long as obama wins pennsylvania he'll have the election locked up. even if he loses ohio, virginia, and florida, he'll still have enough electoral votes to win the election.

so at the very least i think he'll get 278 electoral votes, but he'll probably pick up at least one of the other 3 swing states.

if i had to put money on it, i'd say it goes 311 to 227 for obama.

[Tungsten]

Nice analysis ardrum. My prediction is a 364-174 win for Obama. Of the close states I give Obama Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri. McCain gets Indiana.

The numbers just don't add up for McCain, but that said, as an Obama supporter I'm still a little nervous. You never know what people are going to do once they're in the booth. It should be an interesting night.